All policy decisions involve a certain amount of anticipation and speculation, informed or otherwise. It is useful to know the range of possible outcomes so that resources can be allocated effectively and preparations made for disruptions to established patterns. Policymaking in the drugs area is sometimes reactive to changes in behaviour in certain populations, some of which may be predictable but often appear, at least to policymakers, as sudden aberrations from the expected norm.

A recent initiative¹ from the Directorate-General for Justice and Consumers at the European Commission provides a forum for debate among all stakeholders who can contribute to future-oriented policy thinking on substance use. Routine monitoring has been the mainstay of evidence-based drug policy for two decades. The indicators based on these data are now complemented by environmental, cultural, and economic information, not just to provide a wider perspective but also to find ways to respond more rapidly to an ever-changing situation.

The EMCDDA’s trendspotter studies have been designed to take advantage of this wider information spectrum, and trendspotting methodology is itself a new approach to data collection and evidence synthesis. This approach will inform policy decisions around the implications for law enforcement and health services. By drawing on expertise across a range of disciplines, we will be able to refine the tools we use to both assess the current situation and observe trends over shorter time periods that would not be possible if we relied solely on routine monitoring data.

Certain drug use patterns are recognisable across Europe but each region, country, and even municipality has its own peculiar variation in drug-using behaviour. While increasingly sophisticated analytical tools will enable more refined and timely pictures of the global situation to be drawn, governments charged with implementing strategy need to examine how to adapt these tools to the local or national situation. Epidemiological analysis and law enforcement data have helped us build robust and comparable national reports. The very nature of drug-using behaviour means that these information sources will only tell us part of the story and their capacity to predict future patterns is limited. By using other kinds of data and finding ways to integrate these into established analytical systems, we will be better placed to consider what might happen and more equipped to respond to change.