Background: Substance use has spiked during the COVID-19 pandemic, highlighting potential links between reactivity to pandemic-related stress and increases in substance use engagement. Leveraging population-level exposure to a novel environmental stressor, the current study investigated whether emotion reactivity measured prior to the pandemic predicts the degree to which COVID-related stress impacts future substance use during the pandemic.

Methods: Participants included 240 socioeconomically diverse adults (M/SD=33.47/9.39 years old) who were recruited from communities disproportionately impacted by the pandemic, with COVID-19 positivity and unemployment rates higher than the national average. All participants completed a research study prior to the start of the pandemic, and 90 of those participants were randomly selected to complete a follow-up study approximately six months into the pandemic.

Results: On average, the sample reported high levels of stressors that they attributed specifically to the COVID-19 pandemic. Results revealed that trait emotional reactivity moderated the impact of pandemic-inflicted stressors on future substance use, such that COVID-related stress exposure was associated with an increase in substance use for individuals who tend to experience negative emotions for prolonged periods of time.

Limitations: Limitations of the study are that the data were collected in a fixed timeframe of the COVID-19 pandemic and the exclusive use of self-report measures.

Conclusions: The longitudinal design of the present study extends the current literature by highlighting the potential role of emotional reactivity in predicting substance use coping behaviors. Findings suggest that emotion reactivity may be a useful intervention target among individuals highly impacted by the pandemic.